Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Taipei and much of Taiwan will be flooded out in future due to global warming; millions will move north to polar cities in China and Russia


Taipei will be undersea in future: researcher

The China Post reported on September 3, 2009

TAIPEI, Taiwan (as seen in photo above, might be under water in 2121 AD -- Taipei will be entirely under the sea by the end of this century, an Academia Sinica research fellow warned yesterday. Not just the Taipei basin will be engulfed by the rising seas triggered by climate warming, Wang Chung-ho told an Academia Sinica-sponsored seminar on climate change and the prospect of indigenous culture.

[Dr Wang, born in 1950, received his PH.D. in 1984 from the University of Hawaii -- in Marine Geology and Geophysics. He earned his B.S. degree in geology from the College of Chinese Culture in Taipei in 1976.] [for newspaper inquiries or interview requests, contact chwang@earth.sinica.edu.tw]


Most of the plains area on Taiwan, including every city and county along its west coast, will be submerged under the rising seawater, Wang said in a research paper theorizing the attack of the seas on the island.

Wang, research fellow at the AS institute of geoscientific research, theorizes the invasion of the seas on the basis of an estimate by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that the sea level will rise by at least one meter before this century is out.

“Not 40 centimeters or 50 centimeters,” Wang said, “but one meter at the very least, that will gobble up most of the low-lying areas on Taiwan.”

Taiwan's east coast will be a little better off, however.

As a result, Wang went on, the people in the heavily populated plains would have to go up to higher ground, the mountains which are the traditional habit of most of Taiwan's indigenous Austronesian peoples.

The mass migration which would result in overdevelopment of mountainous areas, causing landslides like the ones hitting the tribal villages in the wake of Typhoon Morakot whenever heavy rains fall, Wang said.

At least 500 residents of Siaolin, the tribal village in the county of Kaohsiung, still remain buried since August 9, presumed dead.

Morakot struck Taiwan August 8-9. The village, buried in mudslides, was abandoned.

“That may be an inevitable disaster we have to face in the next nine decades,” Wang pointed out.

Climate warming is thawing the ice in the arctic ocean, Wang said. All the ice in the polar zone is expected to melt in three decades, compelling Taiwan to move its capital from Taipei to a much higher place.

“We have to be prepared for that worst scenario,” Wang added.

Dr. Liu Shao-chen, director of the climate change research center, joined Wang in issuing the warning of the rapid rise in the sea level and a tripling of precipitation.

“It's not impossible,” Liu said.

Moreover, Liu said, a rise by one degree Celcius in the temperature would increase Taiwan's precipitation by 1.4 times.

“In other words,” Liu continued, “before the end of this century, the mean rainfall will rise 2.8 times. And if no greenhouse gas emission isn't controlled, the rise will shoot up by 5.6 times.”

It means the record torrential rains that hit central and southern Taiwan in Morakot's wake will be repeated frequently, touching off devastating landslides.

But the mass exodus of people from the plains to the mountains would squeeze indigenous tribes out of their traditional habitat.

“They may have nowhere to go,” Wang said.

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/local/taipei/2009/09/02/222961/Taipei-will.htm

3 comments:

dan said...

台灣1成土地恐沈海底

【聯合晚報╱記者林進修/台北報導】 2009.09.02 06:05 am


中央研究院地球科學研究所研究員汪中和今早提出警告,如果我們不好好保護地球環境,地球氣溫持續增加,海平面上揚,未來台灣從台北盆地、新竹、台中到高屏等廣大平原沿海地區均將沈入海底,國人只好被迫遷居到山區,與土石流等天災搏命。

他認為,這種趨勢將會無可避免。一旦台北盆地被海水攻陷,遷都勢將成為無可逃避的事實,屆時將對政府及國人帶來鉅大衝擊。

台灣是海平面上升衝擊最大國家之一


汪中和表示,聯合國政府間氣候變遷研究小組 (IPCC)今年3月的學術研討會做出結論,本世紀前地球海平面上升幅度將以公尺計算,而非先前預測的40至50公分。聯合國的報告則顯示,台灣是海平面上升衝擊最大的10個國家之一。

汪中和預測,一旦海平面上升1公尺,台灣將有1成的土地被海水淹沒,包括台北盆地、台中、彰化、雲林、嘉義及蘭陽平原等沿海地區,在這次八八水災中被泡在洪水裡的林邊、佳冬等高屏沿海,更是無法倖免。

中研院今天舉辦「氣候變遷、國土保育與台灣原住民族的社會文化願景─八八風災後的前瞻性跨學科討論會」,汪中和發表的「台灣沿海沈沒說」,引起與會者討論。他指出,北冰洋融化是造成海平面上升的主要因素,而全球氣候暖化則是元兇。如果情況未見改善,北冰洋在未來30年內即可能融化,台北盆地淪陷而須遷都,也有可能在未來100年內成真,政府及國人要有心理準備。

溫度上升1度 台灣1成總雨量增1.4倍


中研院環境變遷研究中心主任劉紹臣認為,台灣沿海地區全面淪陷,「不是不可能!」該中心研究發現,全球溫度每上升1度,台灣每年排名前10%的幾場降雨,總雨量就會增加1.4倍,帶來更多災害。他預測,即使全球做好節能減碳措施,到本世紀結束前,台灣前10%降雨量也會增加2.8倍;若未做好節能減碳措施,則會再增一倍變成5.6倍,可說相當嚴重。

當台灣沿海地區全都沈入海底,汪中和認為國人將無可選擇地被迫往高處移動,住在目前原住民居住的地方,形成另一種大規模的遷村。不過,劉紹臣憂心地說,到時候台灣大多數山地很可能都被畫為土石流危險區域,不適合居住,我們又該怎麼辦?

dan said...

台灣本世紀末 逾一成國土將泡水中
國土示意圖
屆時連台北盆地都會被淹了

〔記者林嘉琪/台北報導〕八八惡水災害還未退散,環境危機更在劇烈惡化,「台灣澇旱危機來臨,強颱數量還會增加。」中研院學者指出,受全球暖化影響,氣溫持續飆高,冰融持續,聯合國政府間氣候變遷研究小組(IPCC)指出,本世紀末海平面將上升一公尺,屆時屏東縣林邊、佳冬、彰化甚至台北盆地等台灣一成多土地都將「泡湯」無法住人,加上山區土石流頻傳,考驗台灣政府如何制定因應政策、如何與天共存。

暖化致澇旱頻繁 須訂新政策

中研院昨天舉行「氣候變遷、國土保育與台灣原住民族的社會文化願景」討論會。中研院地科所研究員汪中和指出,全球面臨暖化危機,降雨強度三級跳,資料顯示,台灣以往有三成時間處於乾旱範圍,雖偶會出現豪雨,但有對應方法,然而近年幾個颱風都屬例外情況,帶來水淹中山高、八八水災等災害。氣象學者指出,今年所有指標都指向乾旱,沒想到莫拉克颱風太極端,降雨量全集中南部,土石流及大雨重傷台灣。

中研院環境變遷中心主任劉紹臣指出,台灣冬春乾旱、夏天大雨,影響農耕,造成糧食匱乏、蓄水不足,面對澇旱交替事實,政府必須重新思索設計水利政策及工程。

山區有土石流威脅 不適合居住

汪中和更指出,氣候異常現象近年規模更大、頻率更高。台灣在一九九四年八月有三個雨量驚人的颱風、一九九八年十月出現二個、二○○一年九月一個,間隔四年及三年;二○○七年八月三個、二○○八年九月二個、二○○九年出現莫拉克,間隔縮短到二年到一年,頻率縮短,雨量規模變大。

「就算有效節能減碳,二十一世紀末仍會增高二度,人類若不改變,氣溫會升溫四度。」劉紹臣指出,一旦世紀末溫度增高二度,全台灣前十%強降雨量會增加二.八倍;若不力行節能減碳,到世紀末將增高四度,前十%強降雨量會增加五.六倍,颱風會帶來豪大雨量,最值得憂慮的是「小時瞬間雨」暴增,土石流增加量更大,摧毀威力難以想像。

劉紹臣認為台灣山區危險,不適合人類居住。汪中和更指出,IPCC預測本世紀結束前,全球海平面將至少上升一公尺,台灣會有一成沿海或低窪地區被淹沒,宜蘭沿海、台北盆地、桃竹沿海、彰化、雲林、嘉義、台南、高雄、林邊、佳冬、台東,都是被淹沒的高風險區。台灣山區及沿岸的環境危機夾擊民眾生存空間,該怎麼辦?值得深思。

Anonymous said...

The Chinese-language news reports about Dr Wang's presentation of yesterday can be found at:

http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2009/new/sep/2/today-life7.htm

http://udn.com/NEWS/NATIONAL/NAT5/5111346.shtml

http://www.nownews.com/2009/09/02/91-2500377.htm