(異言堂)一公分的危機 .....Experts discuss hazards rising sea levels pose to Taiwan

(異言堂)一公分的危機

一公分究竟有多重要，一公分很容易被人忽視的，它渺小到可能被人踩在腳底，但是它也可能會帶來毀滅性的危機，根據聯合國世界銀行組織最新的報告指出，台灣是受海平面上升衝擊最大的十個國家之一，目前全球海平面上升速度，每年0.3公分，但若是加速到每年上升一公分，台北盆地 宜蘭 台中以下到屏東西南沿海的平原區，在這個世紀末將可能被海水淹沒。

Experts discuss hazards rising sea levels pose to Taiwan (2010/01/10)

A scientist at Academia Sinica has predicted that the earth’s seas will rise by at least 1 meter before the end of this century. If that prediction comes true, the effects on Taiwan and the rest of the world would be harrowing. Today in Part 1 of an X-part series on global warming, we take a look at these disastrous consequences.


Global warming brought about by high carbon emissions has caused the earth’s atmosphere to become warmer. Land glaciers are melting and the amount of arctic ice has reduced by one-third. The melting ice is causing the world’s sea levels to rise.



Wang Jhong-he
Academia Sinica Earth Sciences Institute
Over the past century it has risen exactly 20 centimeters. That’s about 0.1 to 0.2 centimeters per year. Right now it’s increasing in speed. Around the world sea levels rise about 0.3 centimeters a year. Originally, it was stable, but now it’s accelerating very quickly. Our prediction is that before the end of this century, sea levels will rise by at least 1 meter.



The prediction by scientists that over the next 100 years the seas will rise by an average of 1 centimeter per year may sound slow. But sea levels typically rise faster than scientists’ predictions. Rising sea levels are already changing world maps.



Three years ago, India’s Lohachara Island was confirmed to have been inundated and wiped off the map. The Maldives and South Pacific island nations such as Nauru, Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands have all seen their coastlines reduced drastically. They are expected to disappear before the end of this century. In May 2009, the World Bank Group issued a climate change report that listed the 10 nations to be worst-affected by rising sea levels. Countries from Central America, the Caribbean, Africa and Asia made the list. Taiwan was also included.



Wang Jhong-he
Academia Sinica Institute Earth Sciences Institute
Before this century ends, we will have to face a rise of at least 1 meter. A rise of 1 meter would affect one-tenth of the world’s population. In other words, at least 700 million people will be impacted. In Taiwan, about one-tenth of our land will suffer major effects.


Taiwan’s government has already begun to pay attention to the issue’s severity. The Environmental Protection Administration has commissioned Sinotech Engineering Consultants to perform simulations of what would happen if the sea were to rise 1 meter. The area covered by seawater would be equivalent to Taipei City, and the areas that would be covered are all densely populated.



This is the mouth of the Danshuei River in Taipei County. When the sea level rises by 1 meter in this computerized simulation, large portions of Danshuei, Bali and Guandu are covered in water. It may sound alarmist, but NTU Institute of Oceanography professor Fan Guang-liang has observed changes in sea levels at a large number of Taiwan’s harbors. He has discovered that the rise is relentless.



Fan Guang-lung
NTU Institute of Oceanography
The rising trend is very obvious. Over the next 10 or 20 years, I don’t think this trend will stop. A rise of 1 centimeter will not mean that the distance it encroaches on land will only be 1 centimeter because the land near the sea is often quite flat. If it rises by 20 centimeters, even areas that are a few kilometers from the sea could be covered.


Wang Jhong-he
Academia Sinica Institute Earth Sciences Institute
The lateral effect of a 1 centimeter vertical rise would be about 10 times, perhaps seven to 10 times as much. That means that 1 centimeter would end up being 7 to 10 centimeters laterally. If it were 1 meter, then it would be 7 to 10 meters. So the effect would be extremely obvious.


Many think that the any major disasters won’t happen for another 100 years. But experts say a more likely, and even more worrying, figure is 50 years. The crisis for Taiwan is not far away.



隨著全球暖化越來越嚴重，過高的碳排放量，讓地球愈來愈熱，陸地冰川融化，北極冰山二十年來已經減少三分之一，這些冰化成海水造成全球海平面持續上升。




[[中研院地球科學研究所 研究員　汪中和]]
在過去一個世紀它剛好上升二十公分
也就是說每一年大概是0.1到0.2公分
現在我們是在加速
全球的海平面大概一年是0.3公分
原來是很穩定的
現在整個加速的速度就更快了
預計在這個世紀結束之前
我們的海平面上升最少一公尺




這是科學家預測未來一百年，海平面上升的幅度，平均一年海水上漲一公分，看起來很緩慢但是上升的曲線圖，不斷突破科學家的預測，海水滅國的速度之快，也改寫世界地圖。




印度羅哈恰拉島，三年前被證實遭海水淹沒，從地圖上消失。馬爾地夫以及南太平洋的島國諾魯 ，吐瓦魯 ，馬紹爾群島，海岸線退縮嚴重，預計這個世紀末也將會消失，聯合國的世界銀行組織， 2009年5月發表氣候變遷的報告，列出受到海平面上升衝擊最大的十個國家，從中美洲 非洲 到亞洲，甚至也有台灣。



[[中研院地球科學研究所 研究員　汪中和]]
這個世紀結束之前
我們最少要面臨一公尺的幅度
對於全世界來說 一公尺的上升量
當然會影響到十分之一的人口
也就是最少會有差不多七億的人口會受到衝擊
那對我們台灣來說
我們大概有一成的土地會受到很大的影響




台灣政府早已注意到問題的嚴重性，環保署曾委託中興工程公司，進行調查模擬，如果海平面上升一公尺，各地淹水的面積加起來，相當於一個台北市，而且被淹沒的是人口稠密的平原區。



這裡是台北縣淡水河口，海平面距離路面高度約一公尺，以電腦動畫模擬來看，當海平面上升，淡水 八里 關渡 將被海水淹沒，看起來似乎危言聳聽，但台大海洋所教授范光龍，監測台灣各港口海平面變化，發現這已經是擋不住的趨勢。



[[台大海洋研究所 教授 范光龍]]
上升趨勢非常明顯
一 二十年內 我想這個趨勢還是不會停
上升一公分 往內陸入侵的距離就不是一公分
因為海邊的土地一般比較平
如果上升二十公分 離海平面甚至有些地方
會有幾公里的距離淹水都有可能



[[中研院地球科學研究所 研究員　汪中和]]
垂向的一公分 它的橫向影響
大概是它的十倍 七到十倍
也就是說一公分的話
就是七到十公分
一公尺的話 它就會七到十公尺
所以它的影響就會非常地明顯



也許你認為家園被海水淹沒是一百年後的事，但學者提出令人更憂心的數字，也就是五十年，台灣的危機就會提早到來。

Another environmental activist said that the lack of initiatives showed that the public would have to work together to reduce emissions and called for more civic participation.

“The public needs to understand our nation’s extreme challenges … Our situation is not much better than Tuvalu or Nauru,” said Wang Chin-shou (王俊秀), a professor at National Tsinghua University, in reference to the two island nations in danger of being engulfed because of rising sea levels. “In a couple of decades, the entire Taipei basin could be sitting under water.”