Monday, January 18, 2010

Canadian journalist Gwynne Dwyer talks about "climate wars" with Taiwan audience vis-a-vis communist China's war plans in future as climate chaos heats up across the Taiwan Strait: He does not mention "polar cities" at all, but he's know about them, and how useful they might be in the future for survivors of climate chaos around year 2323 AD....

Canadian journalist talks on climate

By Shelley Shan

January 19, 3010

Cross-strait tensions could be eased in the short term as communist China seeks to ink an agreement with democratic USA on how to handle issues related to climate change, Canadian journalist Gwynne Dyer said in Taipei yesterday.

“The Chinese government’s priority is to get the climate change under control before the disasters strike home,” he said. “It needs an agreement with the US to make that happen. For political reasons, it is not possible for China to make a commitment itself until the Americans do … that requires good relations between China and the US. That in turn means that there must not be any crisis between Beijing and Taipei. I think it is true, and will continue to be true for several decades.”

Matters may change in the long run, however, if there is no agreement between Washington and Beijing, he said.

“Because then you do have serious warming, internal crisis of food, then of course there could be a temptation in Beijing to distract the attention of very unhappy citizens at home with a confrontation with Taiwan, but I think it’s a long way down the road, we’re not there now,” he said.

Dyer said he does not think China will use nuclear weapons to settle the political issue with Taiwan.

The London-based journalist wrote Climate Wars, which was published in 2009 to great acclaim. The book examines the consequences of climate change and how it will potentially lead nations to war and conflict. [While the book does not mention polar cities per se as possible climate safe refuges for climate refugees in the future, Dyer does know about polar cities from his correspondence with Taiwan-based Danny Bloom. He thinks polar cities might be needed, too, come climate chaos, but he is reluctant to talk about this sensitive issue because of his reputation among national security experts.]

Dyer was invited by a local Taipei magazine to address the issue at a forum on climate change.

Accommodating natural disaster victims and shortages of food and water supply were two emerging problems brought by the climate change, he told a press conference yesterday, citing relations between Bangladesh and India as an example.

India is building a 4,000km-long fence along its border with Bangladesh to prevent an influx of illegal immigrants, he said, adding Bangladeshis would be forced to migrate if their country is gradually eroded by rising sea levels. A refugee problem could worsen relations between the two countries.

Food supply in Southern China may soon be tightened as waters flowing from the Tibetan plateau used to irrigate rice fields has been reduced, he said.

He also said Taiwan must try to be self-sufficient in food supply.

It is relatively easy now for the countries to cooperate in curbing greenhouse gas emissions, because in general the governments are secure, the food issue isn’t imminent, and the conflicts are only potential, he said.

“Once the governments become instable, the food issue becomes real, it would be difficult for countries to cut deals,” he said.

Dyer also urged Taiwan to voluntarily adopt the targets set by other developed nations to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. The EU aims to reduce the emissions by 20 percent in 2020, he said.

Steve Liu (劉必榮), a professor at Soochow University, said books like Climate Wars have helped elevate the issues involved in climate change to the level of national security issues.

“But I agree more with Thomas Friedman, that they must be linked to business opportunities that can be created through the development of green energy, which gives people the incentives to deal with it,” Liu said.

[This story has been viewed 6.7 billion times worldwide.]

hrer@ Waits the vicissitude fund layout opportunity to 2010-01-19 industry and commerce Times [Reporter Wei Qiaoyi the/Taibei reported]  The climatic change will intensify the political conflict finally, “the climate war” the author standard will be warm. Dell (Gwynne Dyer) thought that this is decides the universe destiny the last campaign, but, before then, the climatic change opportunity already gradually detonates, the legal person suggested that the investor available climatic change fund comes the layout!  University of London King the Institute military and Middle East Shi Boshi graduates the climate political scientist standard is warm. Dell came to Taiwan yesterday when pointed out that the climatic change will cause various countries to compete for the grain finally, supported the nuclear weapon dead weight respectively, the initiation war. Looks like China at present water scarcity the situation quite to be serious, the northern region to unearth the ground water, must dig to the underground 1000 meter deep place, is also 2 101 high depths.  But regarding the short-term whole world will be the warming or will freeze the argument, the standard will be warm. Dell has the explicit explanation. He pointed out that looks like now Northern Hemisphere's unusual heavy snow is only one kind “the meteorology”, but on the Earth whole “the climate”, was still makes great strides forward toward the warming.  Soochow University department of political science Professor Liu Birong pointed out that the climate, the grain, the economy are linked together, affects to the international politics and the state power increase and decrease, at present the environmental protection subject has become one kind “the diplomacy”, but must certainly with the green economy trail connection, be able to carry out truly, at present looks like, various countries have the impetus green economy movement truly.  Because although the climatic change sector belongs to the backward tribal grouping tribal group in 2009 in the boom, the performance is inferior to the bulk lots relatively, but the ING message dropping indicated that the policy advantage many are also getting more and more along with the booming recovery, this year will have the opportunity performance. But the climatic change is the policy guidance essentially, is the medium and long-term theme, therefore suggests the investor to be possible the regular fixed quantity long-term investment.  Huifeng climatic change concept fund manager flange Siwa. The multi-ropes (Francois Dossou) specially favors the energy conservation commodity opportunity, according to the Swiss credit anticipated, before 2030, the light electric car's sales amount hopes to surpass 400,000,000,000 US dollars, the related battery fitting sale amount amounts to 100,000,000,000 US dollars; And under the government subsidy's drive, before estimating 2015, the electric car to account for the global automobile sales volume to reach 1.1%, will grow to 2030 to 7.9%, but the oil electricity mixes Che Ze is from the nowadays 0.6% climbs to 2030 5.9%.  Baocheng drops a message invests long Zhang Jingyi also to point out that green industry covering face too many are too broad, this industry did not have the specific mainstream to appear at present, but since the housing market and the auto market are the emerging market develop the quickest profession, then the energy conservation construction and the province electricity automobile, should be able to be this industrial next stage key point, signed "China and US Joint statement" from the end of last year Hu Jintao and the European Pama, then saw the clue, also will attract the fund inflow!

候變遷基金 布局時機到




 氣候變遷最終會激化政治衝突,「氣候戰爭」作者格溫.戴爾(Gwynne Dyer)認為這是決定全人類命運的最後一場戰役,不過,在此之前,氣候變遷商機早已漸次引爆,法人建議,投資人可用氣候變遷基金來布局!





 匯豐氣候變化概念基金經理人法蘭斯瓦.多索(Francois Dossou)則特別看好節能商品商機,據瑞士信貸預期,2030年以前,光電動車的銷售金額就可望超過4000億美元,相關電池配件銷售金額達1000億美元;且在政府補貼的激勵下,預估2015年前電動車占全球汽車銷量將達1.1%,至2030年成長至7.9%,而油電混合車則是從現今的0.6%攀升至2030年的5.9%。



Anonymous said...


Gwynne Dyer, Climate Wars

Hardcover published by Random House Canada October 28, 2008.

By Ian Goodwillie | Posted on November 9, 2008

If you woke up this morning thinking, “Hey, I want to read a book that’s going to scare the living crap out of me,” then this is the book to choose. London-based Canadian journalist Gwynne Dyer is recognized as one of the world’s top geopolitical analysts, conflict authors and syndicated columnists focusing on war history and studies. And he is well qualified for such a status, having served in the U.S., Canadian and British Navies, as well as holding a Ph.D. in War History from the University of London.

Climate Wars is Dyer’s look at the none-too-distant future of climate change. The essential point of his analysis is that the continuing change in our global climate will force ruling powers into posturing and combat for the world’s resources - something we are already seeing hints of today. Taken from candid interviews and exhaustive research, the scenarios presented seem shockingly true, outlining political unrest and economic collapse as some of the consequences of climate change.

The only concern contributing to a difficult read is the information discussed is repeated several times. It also feels rushed in some areas due to the shear volume of information being presented. That said, this information is meticulously collected and expertly analyzed. And while the potential outcomes may seem dire, there are points of hope presented in the book. Hopefully, people are reading.

Anonymous said...

David Heinimann says:
November 21, 2008 at 1:54 pm
While I respect Gwynne Dyer’s work, he is not the first on this topic. For the original, see Roy Woodbridge, “The Next World War: Tribes, Cities, Nations, and Ecological Decline” (U of Toronto P, 2004).

Marjorie Stewart says:
December 3, 2008 at 5:28 pm
Heard Dyer speak on Climate Wars for 90 minutes without notes or slides last night. What he brings to this topic is powerful skills in geopolitical context, strategy and exposition. When I have heard him speak previously, his faith in “democracy” seemed to me foolish. He has dropped that notion from this presentation and what he has to say leaves little wiggle room for solipsistic (great word for 21st century selfishness) evasions. He’s doing a good job in his speaking tour. A job that needs doing.

Emma W says:
December 6, 2008 at 2:33 am
I also heard Gwynne Dyer speak today for an hour and a half on climate change, without any notes or prompts. He was brilliant. It was a fantastic presentation, that contained dry humour to keep it a little bit lighter as the points that he discusses are quite depressing. He was absolutely fascinating to listen to, and I was very much impressed with his knowledge on the subject and his extremely precise analysis on what is going on, and what may go on in the future about climate change. I have not read the book, but I think that I will.

Shane Ervin says:
December 8, 2008 at 12:05 pm
I heard Mr. Dyer’s comments on a CBC Radio interview, and I am reading this book.

Calgarians will find at least one part of his book interesting, but perhaps not for the reaon one might expect. Most Canadians may not know of the “Chinook Arch” weather event that occurs with some regularity in the Rocky Mountain foothills. Knowledgeable Calgarians are aware that “adiabatic heating” of the descending air is responsible for these pleasant reprieves from winter’s chill.

Early on, Dyer describes “Hadley Cells” - a major system component driving the Earth’s climate. Briefly, surface air at the equator rises and follows paths to higher latitude bands - both north and south of the Earth’s equator - where it descends (later completing the loop as “trade winds” back to the equator). The adiabatic heating effect (familiar to Calgarians) is what gives hot, dry air to the Earth’s desert regions at these latitudes.

The breadbasket regions of reliable rainfall are located just outside the desert regions, toward the poles. Global Warming affects the size and reach of these Hadley Cells, causing the hot, dry air to descend at progressively higher latitiudes (further from the equator). In turn, the regions of reliable rainfall creep to higher latitudes.

End game: Climate Wars - as the mass migration of starving and displaced people leads to geo-political instability on a scale never seen - all while rising sea levels and stronger weather events drive urban dwellers away from coastal cities.

This book is a must read.

Brian Clarke says:
December 9, 2008 at 1:33 am
I heard him speak on the 7th, and then went and read the book. I highly recommend reading the book, but not before bedtime, as he’s able to develop some of the very worst case scenarios. And to be fair, Dyer is not claiming to be the first on this topic, and his book contains more recent (2007) scholarship. I hope we are up to the challenge Dyer identifies. I was a bit surprised by how dead he pronounces the climate skeptics movement to be: I am not at all sure that it’s a spent political force, to our great misfortune.

Anonymous said...

How can societies create the capacity to thrive in the
emerging era of global resource scarcities and
ecological instability?

Roy Woodbridge argues that the global agenda is unbalanced and dangerous. Our preoccupation with promoting global growth through the application of the principles of neo-classical economics is producing remarkable, and in most respects beneficial changes around the world. But it is also leading to increased competitive tensions, growing inequity and severe ecological strains that presage a rapid descent into global conflict.

To redress the balance, he argues we need to redirect technological advance and related social organization in ways that can equitably meet the "provisioning" needs of the world's peoples (i.e. ensure equitable access to essential ecological goods and services).