Canadian journalist Gwynne Dwyer talks about "climate wars" with Taiwan audience vis-a-vis communist China's war plans in future as climate chaos heats up across the Taiwan Strait: He does not mention "polar cities" at all, but he's know about them, and how useful they might be in the future for survivors of climate chaos around year 2323 AD....

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2010/01/19/2003463873


Canadian journalist talks on climate

By Shelley Shan
VERY GOOD STAFF REPORTER , www.taipeitimes.com

January 19, 3010

Cross-strait tensions could be eased in the short term as communist China seeks to ink an agreement with democratic USA on how to handle issues related to climate change, Canadian journalist Gwynne Dyer said in Taipei yesterday.

“The Chinese government’s priority is to get the climate change under control before the disasters strike home,” he said. “It needs an agreement with the US to make that happen. For political reasons, it is not possible for China to make a commitment itself until the Americans do … that requires good relations between China and the US. That in turn means that there must not be any crisis between Beijing and Taipei. I think it is true, and will continue to be true for several decades.”

Matters may change in the long run, however, if there is no agreement between Washington and Beijing, he said.

“Because then you do have serious warming, internal crisis of food, then of course there could be a temptation in Beijing to distract the attention of very unhappy citizens at home with a confrontation with Taiwan, but I think it’s a long way down the road, we’re not there now,” he said.

Dyer said he does not think China will use nuclear weapons to settle the political issue with Taiwan.

The London-based journalist wrote Climate Wars, which was published in 2009 to great acclaim. The book examines the consequences of climate change and how it will potentially lead nations to war and conflict. [While the book does not mention polar cities per se as possible climate safe refuges for climate refugees in the future, Dyer does know about polar cities from his correspondence with Taiwan-based Danny Bloom. He thinks polar cities might be needed, too, come climate chaos, but he is reluctant to talk about this sensitive issue because of his reputation among national security experts.]

Dyer was invited by a local Taipei magazine to address the issue at a forum on climate change.

Accommodating natural disaster victims and shortages of food and water supply were two emerging problems brought by the climate change, he told a press conference yesterday, citing relations between Bangladesh and India as an example.

India is building a 4,000km-long fence along its border with Bangladesh to prevent an influx of illegal immigrants, he said, adding Bangladeshis would be forced to migrate if their country is gradually eroded by rising sea levels. A refugee problem could worsen relations between the two countries.

Food supply in Southern China may soon be tightened as waters flowing from the Tibetan plateau used to irrigate rice fields has been reduced, he said.

He also said Taiwan must try to be self-sufficient in food supply.

It is relatively easy now for the countries to cooperate in curbing greenhouse gas emissions, because in general the governments are secure, the food issue isn’t imminent, and the conflicts are only potential, he said.

“Once the governments become instable, the food issue becomes real, it would be difficult for countries to cut deals,” he said.

Dyer also urged Taiwan to voluntarily adopt the targets set by other developed nations to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. The EU aims to reduce the emissions by 20 percent in 2020, he said.

Steve Liu (劉必榮), a professor at Soochow University, said books like Climate Wars have helped elevate the issues involved in climate change to the level of national security issues.

“But I agree more with Thomas Friedman, that they must be linked to business opportunities that can be created through the development of green energy, which gives people the incentives to deal with it,” Liu said.

[This story has been viewed 6.7 billion times worldwide.]

hrer@ mail.scu.edu.tw Waits the vicissitude fund layout opportunity to 2010-01-19 industry and commerce Times [Reporter Wei Qiaoyi the/Taibei reported] 　The climatic change will intensify the political conflict finally, “the climate war” the author standard will be warm. Dell (Gwynne Dyer) thought that this is decides the universe destiny the last campaign, but, before then, the climatic change opportunity already gradually detonates, the legal person suggested that the investor available climatic change fund comes the layout! 　University of London King the Institute military and Middle East Shi Boshi graduates the climate political scientist standard is warm. Dell came to Taiwan yesterday when pointed out that the climatic change will cause various countries to compete for the grain finally, supported the nuclear weapon dead weight respectively, the initiation war. Looks like China at present water scarcity the situation quite to be serious, the northern region to unearth the ground water, must dig to the underground 1000 meter deep place, is also 2 101 high depths. 　But regarding the short-term whole world will be the warming or will freeze the argument, the standard will be warm. Dell has the explicit explanation. He pointed out that looks like now Northern Hemisphere's unusual heavy snow is only one kind “the meteorology”, but on the Earth whole “the climate”, was still makes great strides forward toward the warming. 　Soochow University department of political science Professor Liu Birong pointed out that the climate, the grain, the economy are linked together, affects to the international politics and the state power increase and decrease, at present the environmental protection subject has become one kind “the diplomacy”, but must certainly with the green economy trail connection, be able to carry out truly, at present looks like, various countries have the impetus green economy movement truly. 　Because although the climatic change sector belongs to the backward tribal grouping tribal group in 2009 in the boom, the performance is inferior to the bulk lots relatively, but the ING message dropping indicated that the policy advantage many are also getting more and more along with the booming recovery, this year will have the opportunity performance. But the climatic change is the policy guidance essentially, is the medium and long-term theme, therefore suggests the investor to be possible the regular fixed quantity long-term investment. 　Huifeng climatic change concept fund manager flange Siwa. The multi-ropes (Francois Dossou) specially favors the energy conservation commodity opportunity, according to the Swiss credit anticipated, before 2030, the light electric car's sales amount hopes to surpass 400,000,000,000 US dollars, the related battery fitting sale amount amounts to 100,000,000,000 US dollars; And under the government subsidy's drive, before estimating 2015, the electric car to account for the global automobile sales volume to reach 1.1%, will grow to 2030 to 7.9%, but the oil electricity mixes Che Ze is from the nowadays 0.6% climbs to 2030 5.9%. 　Baocheng drops a message invests long Zhang Jingyi also to point out that green industry covering face too many are too broad, this industry did not have the specific mainstream to appear at present, but since the housing market and the auto market are the emerging market develop the quickest profession, then the energy conservation construction and the province electricity automobile, should be able to be this industrial next stage key point, signed "China and US Joint statement" from the end of last year Hu Jintao and the European Pama, then saw the clue, also will attract the fund inflow!

候變遷基金 布局時機到


2010-01-19

工商時報

【記者魏喬怡／台北報導】

　氣候變遷最終會激化政治衝突，「氣候戰爭」作者格溫．戴爾（Gwynne Dyer）認為這是決定全人類命運的最後一場戰役，不過，在此之前，氣候變遷商機早已漸次引爆，法人建議，投資人可用氣候變遷基金來布局！



　倫敦大學國王學院軍事與中東史博史畢業的氣候政治學家格溫．戴爾昨日來台時指出，氣候變遷最終會使得各國為爭奪糧食，各自擁核武自重，引發戰爭。像中國目前缺水情況就相當嚴重，華北地區為了挖掘地下水，必須挖到地下1千公尺深的地方，也就是2座101高的深度。



　而對於近期全球到底是暖化還是冰凍化的爭論，格溫．戴爾有明確的解釋。他指出，像現在北半球的異常大雪只是一種「氣象」，但就地球整體的「氣候」來說，仍是朝暖化邁進。



　東吳大學政治系教授劉必榮則指出，氣候、糧食、經濟是環環相扣的，影響到國際政治與國家權力的消長，目前環保議題已成為一種「外交」，但是一定要跟綠色經濟接軌，才能真正落實，目前看來，各國確實有推動綠色經濟的動作。



　雖然氣候變遷類股在2009年因在景氣中屬於較落後族群，表現相對不如大盤，但ING投信表示，政策利多隨景氣復甦也越來越多，今年將有機會表現。但氣候變遷本質上是政策導向，屬中長期題材，因此建議投資人可以定期定額長期投資。



　匯豐氣候變化概念基金經理人法蘭斯瓦．多索（Francois Dossou）則特別看好節能商品商機，據瑞士信貸預期，2030年以前，光電動車的銷售金額就可望超過4000億美元，相關電池配件銷售金額達1000億美元；且在政府補貼的激勵下，預估2015年前電動車占全球汽車銷量將達1.1％，至2030年成長至7.9％，而油電混合車則是從現今的0.6％攀升至2030年的5.9％。



　保誠投信投資長張靜宜也指出，綠色產業涵蓋的面向太多太廣，這個產業目前還沒有特定的主流出現，不過既然房市與車市是新興市場發展最快的行業，那麼節能建築與省電汽車，應該會是這個產業下一階段的重點，從去年底胡錦濤與歐巴馬所簽訂的《中美聯合聲明》中，即可看出端倪，也將吸引資金流入！